Sunday, May 3, 2020

Our new normal?

My head is full of magic, baby
And I can't share this with you
Feel I'm on a cross again, lately
But there's nothing to do with you

I'm alive, huh, huh, so alive
I'm alive, huh, huh, so alive
Pet Shop Boys
In order to understand this term of "the new normal", it's important to understand what events led up to this. I am by no means an expert on any of the politics or science behind this, so this is just an opinion and my own point of view from my "foxhole", so to speak.

We could start back in the middle ages. This excerpt is taken from wikipedia:
The first European epidemic of the bubonic plague dates back to the mid 6th century and is called the Plague of Justinian.[9] The largest plague epidemic was the Black Death in Europe in the 14th century. The large losses of people in a town created an economic disaster, so community plague doctors were considered quite valuable and were given special privileges; for example, plague doctors were freely allowed to perform autopsies to research a cure for the plague.[10] 

Some plague doctors wore a special costume. The garments were invented by Charles de L'Orme in 1630, and were first used in Naples, but later spread to be used throughout Europe.[12] The protective suit consisted of a light, waxed fabric overcoat, a mask with glass eye openings and a beak shaped nose, typically stuffed with herbs, straw, and spices. Plague doctors would also commonly carry a cane to examine and direct patients without the need to make direct contact with them.[13]
The scented materials included juniper berry, ambergris, roses (Rosa), mint (Mentha spicata L.) leaves, camphor, cloves, laudanum, myrrh, and storax.[7] Due to the primitive understanding of disease at the time, it was believed this suit would sufficiently protect the doctor from miasma while tending to patients.[14]

These masks are referred to as Medico Della Peste. Doctors also wore gloves so they would not come in contact with patients. 
or
We could move forward with the  1917 with the Spanish flu pandemic, from wikipedia:
The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from spring 1918 through spring or early summer 1919, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time.[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[3]
The 1918 flu pandemic was a precursor of things yet to come. This strain of flu was known as H1N1 Influenza strain type A. 
or if pork is more your "taste"
We could go back to the Swine flu in 1976:
On February 5, 1976, a United States army recruit at Fort Dix said he felt tired and weak. He died the next day, and four of his fellow soldiers were later hospitalized. Two weeks after his death, health officials announced the cause of death was a new strain of swine flu. The strain, a variant of H1N1, is known as A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1). It was detected only from January 19 to February 9 and did not spread beyond Fort Dix.[73]
This new strain appeared to be closely related to the strain involved in the 1918 flu pandemic. Moreover, the ensuing increased surveillance uncovered another strain in circulation in the U.S.: A/Victoria/75 (H3N2), which spread simultaneously, also caused illness, and persisted until March.[73] Alarmed public health officials decided action must be taken to head off another major pandemic, and urged President Gerald Ford that every person in the U.S. be vaccinated for the disease.[74]
The vaccination program was plagued by delays and public relations problems.[75] On October 1, 1976, immunizations began, and three senior citizens died soon after receiving their injections. This resulted in a media outcry that linked these deaths to the immunizations, despite the lack of any proof the vaccine was the cause. According to science writer Patrick Di Justo, however, by the time the truth was known—that the deaths were not proven to be related to the vaccine—it was too late. "The government had long feared mass panic about swine flu—now they feared mass panic about the swine flu vaccinations." This became a strong setback to the program.[76]
There were reports of Guillain–BarrĂ© syndrome (GBS), a paralyzing neuromuscular disorder, affecting some people who had received swine flu immunizations. Although whether a link exists is still not clear, this syndrome may be a side effect of influenza vaccines. As a result, Di Justo writes, "the public refused to trust a government-operated health program that killed old people and crippled young people." In total, 48,161,019 Americans, or just over 22% of the population, had been immunized by the time the National Influenza Immunization Program was effectively halted on December 16, 1976.[77] [78] Overall, there were 1098 cases of GBS recorded nationwide by CDC surveillance, 532 of which occurred after vaccination and 543 before vaccination.[79] About one to two cases per 100,000 people of GBS occur every year, whether or not people have been vaccinated.[80] The vaccination program seems to have increased this normal risk of developing GBS by about to one extra case per 100,000 vaccinations.[80]
Recompensation charges were filed for over 4,000 cases of severe vaccination damage, including 25 deaths, totalling US$3.5 billion, by 1979.[81] The CDC stated most studies on modern influenza vaccines have seen no link with GBS,[80][82][83] Although one review gives an incidence of about one case per million vaccinations,[84] a large study in China, reported in the New England Journal of Medicine, covering close to 100 million doses of H1N1 flu vaccine, found only 11 cases of GBS, which is lower than the normal rate of the disease in China: "The risk-benefit ratio, which is what vaccines and everything in medicine is about, is overwhelmingly in favor of vaccination."[85]
Maybe you prefer man-made cocktails:
Human coronaviruses were discovered in the 1960s.[20][21] They were isolated using two different methods in the United Kingdom and the United States.[22] E.C. Kendall, Malcom Byone, and David Tyrrell working at the Common Cold Unit of the British Medical Research Council in 1960 isolated from a boy a novel common cold virus B814.[23][24][25] The virus was not able to be cultivated using standard techniques which had successfully cultivated rhinoviruses, adenoviruses and other known common cold viruses. In 1965, Tyrrell and Byone successfully cultivated the novel virus by serially passing it through organ culture of human embryonic trachea.[26] The new cultivating method was introduced to the lab by Bertil Hoorn.[27] The isolated virus when intranasally inoculated into volunteers caused a cold and was inactivated by ether which indicated it had a lipid envelope.[23][28] Around the same time, Dorothy Hamre and John Procknow at the University of Chicago isolated a novel cold virus 229E from medical students, which they grew in kidney tissue culture. The novel virus 229E, like the virus strain B814, when inoculated into volunteers caused a cold and was inactivated by ether.[29]
Many human coronavirus have their origin in bats.[62] The human coronavirus NL63 shared a common ancestor with a bat coronavirus (ARCoV.2) between 1190–1449 CE.[63] The human coronavirus 229E shared a common ancestor with bat coronavirus (GhanaGrp1 Bt CoV) between 1686–1800 CE.[64] More recently, alpaca coronavirus and human coronavirus 229E diverged sometime before 1960.[65] MERS-CoV emerged in humans from bats through the intermediate host of camels.[66] MERS-CoV, although related to several bat coronavirus species, appears to have diverged from these several centuries ago.[67] The most closely related bat coronavirus and SARS-CoV diverged in 1986.[68] A possible path of evolution, of SARS coronavirus and keen bat coronaviruses, suggests that SARS related coronaviruses coevolved in bats for a long time. The ancestors of SARS-CoV first infected leaf-nose bats of the genus Hipposideridae; subsequently, they spread to horseshoe bats in the species Rhinolophidae, and then to civets, and finally to humans.[69][70]
which ultimately led to...
On 16 April 2003, following the outbreak of SARS in Asia and secondary cases elsewhere in the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a press release stating that the coronavirus identified by a number of laboratories was the official cause of SARS. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States and National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Canada identified the SARS-CoV genome in April 2003.[8][9]
and MERS
The first confirmed case was reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012.[17] Egyptian virologist Ali Mohamed Zaki isolated and identified a previously unknown coronavirus from the man's lungs.[20][21][22] Zaki then posted his findings on 24 September 2012 on ProMED-mail.[21][23] The isolated cells showed cytopathic effects (CPE), in the form of rounding and syncytia formation.[23]
A second case was found in September 2012, a 49-year-old male living in Qatar presented with similar flu symptoms, and a sequence of the virus was nearly identical to that of the first case.[17] In November 2012, similar cases appeared in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Additional cases were noted, with deaths associated, and rapid research and monitoring of this novel coronavirus began.
It is not certain whether the infections are the result of a single zoonotic event with subsequent human-to-human transmission, or if the multiple geographic sites of infection represent multiple zoonotic events from an unknown common source.
A study by Ziad Memish of Riyadh University and colleagues suggests that the virus arose sometime between July 2007 and June 2012, with perhaps as many as 7 separate zoonotic transmissions.[citation needed] Among animal reservoirs, CoV has a large genetic diversity yet the samples from patients suggested a similar genome, and therefore common source, though the data were limited. It was determined through molecular clock analysis that viruses from the EMC/2012 and England/Qatar/2012 date to early 2011, suggesting that these cases were descended from a single zoonotic event. It appeared the MERS-CoV had been circulating in the human population for more than one year without detection and suggested independent transmission from an unknown source.[24][25]
Which brings us to 2020...almost two months since SHTF and it's a blur. A friend of mine had been warning me about the need to prepare but we never saw this coming. We would talk of the breakdown of society, personal security ("Anne, did you buy a gun yet?"), problems if the grid goes down. Now I'm not a hard core prepper but I am very attuned to personal protection and security. Living around DC one cannot help but think about the dirty bomb that could be used. In January, news reports ticked up about coronavirus in China. Dear son developed flu and rebounded in 4 days - tests confirmed it was Influenza Type A. Type B had been prevalent in November/December and Type A was on the rise. News reports:
new coronavirus, related to the SARS and MERS diseases that have caused epidemics, has been discovered in China and started to spread. In just weeks since the viral illness was first reported in Wuhan, China, health experts globally are working on containing and treating it. As of Jan. 31, it has killed over 250 people and sickened more than 11,000.
By 31 January it now has a name - Novel Coronavirus. The World Health Organization has decided this is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern as there are cases in 18 countries (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov))

 Coronavirus spreads around the world | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Life goes on. My work schedule and travel schedule are unrelenting. Steven's uncle dies and we take a trip to Pittsburgh February 2020. Hindsight being what it is - could it have been COVID? and more travel. News reports are on the rise. What is this thing going on in China. Asian racism is on the rise and the nickname is Wuhan virus. Memes go around social media. People are starting to make masks but news reports say masks are ineffective. There is no vaccine. Evacuations start in China. China is on lockdown, then South Korea, then Japan, then Italy....a storm is turning into a tidal wave of panic.It's only a matter of time when the US gets hit ( https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-spread-us-inevitable.html) . There are reports that reported cases all stem from international travel. Cruise ships cannot come to port and Japan makes a huge blunder by keeping guests on a Diamond Princess cruise ship with infected guests...only a matter of time. Remember my friend I mentioned? We continue to talk about preparedness and he urges me to buy masks. This time I listen and purchase R-95 masks - 4 of them. One for each of us. N-95s were not available.

Life goes on. My last trip to Kentucky is the last week in February. I sit next to two people covered from head to toe, masks, gloves, no skin exposed....what is that? I don't stop traveling in flu season. Why are people over-reacting? The absurdity and circus begins. President Trump claims the virus will miraculously go away in April when it's warmer (notice the date of this post?). March 2020 and things spiral.

Coronavirus/COVID-19 is on the news all day everyday. My project team is beginning to feel the impact of social media and bring it to work. We remind ourselves to wash hands frequently. Work sets up a specific coronavirus page. CNN has updates on Coronavirus constantly. Work suspends international travel but I have team members who travel domestically - the fear and panic are starting to creep in on them. I try to remain steady - stay focused, keep your focus on work, wash your hands, everything will be alright. No handshakes are the norm now - keep your distance. Conferences (except the one I am going to on the 11th) are getting cancelled, schools and colleges are beginning to setup remote distance learning plans.

11 March 2020 - I go to Philadelphia via Amtrak Acela. Train is light with passengers but nothing seems out of the ordinary. Business as usual. I return home that evening and watch as Trump holds a press conference at 9pm (?)
As prepared for delivery by the White House, March 11, 2020
My fellow Americans: Tonight, I want to speak with you about our nation’s unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak that started in China and is now spreading throughout the world.
Today, the World Health Organization officially announced that this is a global pandemic.
We have been in frequent contact with our allies, and we are marshaling the full power of the federal government and the private sector to protect the American people.
This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history.  I am confident that by counting and continuing to take these tough measures, we will significantly reduce the threat to our citizens, and we will ultimately and expeditiously defeat this virus.
From the beginning of time, nations and people have faced unforeseen challenges, including large-scale and very dangerous health threats.  This is the way it always was and always will be.  It only matters how you respond, and we are responding with great speed and professionalism.
Our team is the best anywhere in the world.  At the very start of the outbreak, we instituted sweeping travel restrictions on China and put in place the first federally mandated quarantine in over 50 years.  We declared a public health emergency and issued the highest level of travel warning on other countries as the virus spread its horrible infection.
And taking early intense action, we have seen dramatically fewer cases of the virus in the United States than are now present in Europe.
The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hotspots.  As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe.
After consulting with our top government health professionals, I have decided to take several strong but necessary actions to protect the health and well-being of all Americans.
To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days.  The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.  These restrictions will be adjusted subject to conditions on the ground.
There will be exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings, and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval.  Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing.  These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom.
At the same time, we are monitoring the situation in China and in South Korea.  And, as their situation improves, we will reevaluate the restrictions and warnings that are currently in place for a possible early opening.
Earlier this week, I met with the leaders of health insurance industry who have agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments, and to prevent surprise medical billing.
We are cutting massive amounts of red tape to make antiviral therapies available in record time.  These treatments will significantly reduce the impact and reach of the virus.
Additionally, last week, I signed into law an $8.3 billion funding bill to help CDC and other government agencies fight the virus and support vaccines, treatments, and distribution of medical supplies.  Testing and testing capabilities are expanding rapidly, day by day.  We are moving very quickly.
The vast majority of Americans: The risk is very, very low.  Young and healthy people can expect to recover fully and quickly if they should get the virus.  The highest risk is for elderly population with underlying health conditions.  The elderly population must be very, very careful.
In particular, we are strongly advising that nursing homes for the elderly suspend all medically unnecessary visits.  In general, older Americans should also avoid nonessential travel in crowded areas.
My administration is coordinating directly with communities with the largest outbreaks, and we have issued guidance on school closures, social distancing, and reducing large gatherings.
Smart action today will prevent the spread of the virus tomorrow.
Every community faces different risks and it is critical for you to follow the guidelines of your local officials who are working closely with our federal health experts — and they are the best.
For all Americans, it is essential that everyone take extra precautions and practice good hygiene.  Each of us has a role to play in defeating this virus.  Wash your hands, clean often-used surfaces, cover your face and mouth if you sneeze or cough, and most of all, if you are sick or not feeling well, stay home.
To ensure that working Americans impacted by the virus can stay home without fear of financial hardship, I will soon be taking emergency action, which is unprecedented, to provide financial relief.  This will be targeted for workers who are ill, quarantined, or caring for others due to coronavirus.
I will be asking Congress to take legislative action to extend this relief.
Because of the economic policies that we have put into place over the last three years, we have the greatest economy anywhere in the world, by far.
Our banks and financial institutions are fully capitalized and incredibly strong.  Our unemployment is at a historic low.  This vast economic prosperity gives us flexibility, reserves, and resources to handle any threat that comes our way.
This is not a financial crisis, this is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome together as a nation and as a world.
However, to provide extra support for American workers, families, and businesses, tonight I am announcing the following additional actions:  I am instructing the Small Business Administration to exercise available authority to provide capital and liquidity to firms affected by the coronavirus.
Effective immediately, the SBA will begin providing economic loans in affected states and territories.  These low-interest loans will help small businesses overcome temporary economic disruptions caused by the virus.  To this end, I am asking Congress to increase funding for this program by an additional $50 billion.
Using emergency authority, I will be instructing the Treasury Department to defer tax payments, without interest or penalties, for certain individuals and businesses negatively impacted.  This action will provide more than $200 billion of additional liquidity to the economy.
Finally, I am calling on Congress to provide Americans with immediate payroll tax relief.  Hopefully they will consider this very strongly.
We are at a critical time in the fight against the virus.  We made a life-saving move with early action on China.  Now we must take the same action with Europe.  We will not delay.  I will never hesitate to take any necessary steps to protect the lives, health, and safety of the American people.  I will always put the wellbeing of America first.
If we are vigilant — and we can reduce the chance of infection, which we will — we will significantly impede the transmission of the virus.  The virus will not have a chance against us.
No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States.  We have the best economy, the most advanced healthcare, and the most talented doctors, scientists, and researchers anywhere in the world.
We are all in this together.  We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family.
As history has proven time and time again, Americans always rise to the challenge and overcome adversity.
Our future remains brighter than anyone can imagine.  Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens, and emerge from this challenge stronger and more unified than ever before.
God bless you, and God bless America.  Thank you.

I decide to keep my team remote. I tell them to work from home until further notice and guidance from our company. I want to calm their fears and them being home may help their anxiety. Panic buying is starting. There are reports of hoarding toilet paper (always) and other food. Stores in the meantime are business as usual. Hand sanitizer is a frequent site. COVID is an hourly news story - even Disney was affected. Businesses are starting to take a hit. My stock drops below $100/share - it's a joke! On March 12, Virginia closes all K-12 schools for two weeks....it won't be long enough. Now we are dealing with kids at home on top of working from home. Two weeks turn into more weeks. Churches close for in person services. DoD bans domestic travel. More panic buying ensues from the public - the baking aisle is decimated - hardly any flour can be found. Grocery stores finally start putting up shopping limits to stop hoarding.

By the end of March, masks are sacred for our healthcare workers and emergency responders. I had purchased R-95 masks and wasn't sure if I'd get them as supply chains are starting to show signs of cracks. China has been in lockdown for a month and the US relies heavily on Chinese exports of food, products, and MEDICINE. My friend warns me about the medicine but there's really nothing I can do for my mom - I can only hope she can still get her medicines if this continues. Delaware is on complete lockdown and local governments begin doing similar ordinances. Looks like "every man for himself" as the Federal government cannot get their act together. Fauci, Trump, Pence and many others are on daily and the validity of the information is getting sketchy. Who can you trust?

Memes continue on....it's all fun and games, until someone gets COVID
No photo description available. Image may contain: possible text that says 'With March and April pretty much cancelled.... holiday is.... Cinco de Mayo sponsored by Corona' 
No photo description available.

March turns into April - people have been home and using the phrase, wrongfully, shelter in place. Businesses have turned to online and curbside as much as possible given new guidance to limit gatherings to under 10 and stay a socially acceptable 6 feet apart.
Image may contain: 3 people, meme, possible text that says 'Me This quarantine sucks! Government You just bought yourself another 30 days, mister! Wanna keep going? I've got all of 2020.'
I make masks to preserve my R-95s. We have a remodel planned and will be needing them. I work on three prototypes but ultimately my first model is the one I love. I'm the one that goes out of the house, runs to the grocery store, home depot. Steven said with all my travel, my immunity is probably better than his....probably not far from the truth. Masks are being made out of some very interesting items and sewing patterns/sewing armies emerge to arm our healthcare workers with much needed PPE.
 

Easter and Dear daughter's birthday will be interesting. I have to figure out how we'll do this since her birthday party is out of the question. I decide that emailing her friend's moms and asking them to pass along sending birthday wishes is the best we can do. Her friends rally and drive over to deliver her hand made cards. I was very heart-warmed and she was smiles for the rest of the afternoon. Work groans on and we are all home together. Probably the best outcome for me during this time is seeing my family every day and repairing our relationships long damaged due to my work schedule and travel.  My sister and I start up workout buddy system but that is short-lived due to my work schedule as three proposals drop and I basically roll out of bed to the computer every day....notice the ground hog day meme? Yes, by the end of April and being home for 1.5 months...cracks start to surface not only for me but for everyone.

12 April 2020 - my uncle died due to complications of COVID. He lived in a nursing home outside of Philadelphia. I don't have the exact timing but it was about a week from the time he entered the hospital to his death. Sadness compounded by isolation.

Isolation is bringing out creative ways to have community. Virtual dinners and happy hours spring up. People identify themselves as extroverts or introverts and believe that because they are extroverts they have a harder time with isolation. Isolation at this scale and duration is taxing on everyone. While we are lucky to be together as a family, others are not. College kids are going back home to be with their families.

Reports of protests start to surface...protests of what? Governments imposing on personal liberties. People demand businesses open up. The economy can only take so much and by Trump's account that's all that matters. Protestors begin in Michigan. There are reports of a movement called "Herd Immunity"....which Steven and I had been discussing for the last month. Where are the damned tests? Where is the vaccine? What is the long-term plan? The problem is that COVID is killing elderly. It's starting to show up in the young "COVID Toes" are a new symptom in that demographic. My best friend tested positive. Schools are struggling to provide distance learning - some are better at it than others but all are challenged. Some schools just threw in the towel. Our children's school district FCPS decided to close grades for 3Q and ruled that 4Q grades would not count. They attempted distance learning and failed on the first day shutting it off and telling the kids they needed another week. What are we doing here?

3 May 2020 - What is COVID teaching us? Remember bats and COVID? Read this article
Why The U.S. Government Stopped Funding A Research Project On Bats And Coronaviruses
 and
Wuhan Lab As Coronavirus Source Gains Traction
Aside from bat experiments, what is COVID teaching you?